Stability Program: Greek GDP to leap by 6.2% in 2022

Strong recovery of 6.2% in 2022 from 3.6% this year, is being predicted by the Stability and Growth Program submitted to the Commission last night by the Greek government. GDP will rise over 4% for 2023 (4.1%) and 2024 (4.4%) utilizing the funds of the Recovery Facility, according to the forecasts contained in the text.

Beyond that, investment is expected to increase by 7% this year and show a steep rise with an increase of 30.3% in 2022. They are projected to continue to grow at a rate of 12.3% and 10.8% for 2023 and 2024 respectively.

Reduction of unemployment

Exports are expected to increase by 10.4% this year, and by 13.7% in 2022 and will continue to grow at a rate of 7.5% and 6.2% respectively for 2023 and 2024.

The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by 4.1% during the next four years. Is is forecast that from 14.6% this year which is expected to reach 12.8% in 2022, 11.7% in 2023, and 10.5% in 2024. At the same time the employment rate is expected to increase by 0.7% for this year, by 2.3% in 2022, and by 1.3% in the years 2023 and 2024.

Deficit

Financially, the imprint of the health crisis will be quite strong in 2021 as the deficit will increase to 9.9% of GDP at the end of 2021 from 9.7% reached in 2020 due to the additional support measures worth 15.6 billion euros that will be disbursed under the program.

The deficit will decline significantly to 2.9% of GDP in 2022 and to 0.4% in 2023 and will turn into a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in 2024.

The primary result will also increase from 6.7% of GDP in 2020 to 7.2% of GDP this year and will fall significantly to 0.3% of GDP in 2022 and will turn into a surplus of 2% of GDP in 2023 and 2 , 9% of GDP in 2024.

High debt

By the same token, the general government debt will increase as an absolute number by 11.5 billion euros in 2021, from 341,023 billion in 2020 to 352.5 billion euros this year, reduced marginally as a percentage of GDP from 205.6 % of GDP at 204.5% this year.

The significant reduction will start in 2022 when the debt as a percentage of GDP will decrease by 14.7% of GDP to 189.5% and then to 176.7% in 2023 and 166.1% in 2024.

Support worth 40.7 billion

The text of the program also describes the peak of the fiscal burden from the health crisis this year with the debt increasing to 352.5 billion euros for this year and a deficit of 9.9% of GDP (up from 9.7% in 2020) and the primary deficit from 6.7% of GDP to 7.2% of GDP.

In fact, the program reveals that the support measures will reach a total of 40.7 billion euros, of which 23.1 billion euros (13.9% of GDP) were disbursed in 2020 and 25.6 billion euros (9.1 % of GDP) are expected to be disbursed in 2021. There are also measures worth 2 billion euros (1.1% of GDP) whose implementation will be extended to 2022.