Evaluation – The debate with the institutions for the 11th evaluation begins

The conclusion of the Institutions for the 11th evaluation of Greece is to be published in a few hours, which is expected to be positive for the Greek economy but also concerning the progress in a series of reforms. Immediately afterward, the new consultations for the 12th evaluation begin, with the first contacts of the technical levels starting after the Eurogroup on October 4th.

The next evaluation is related to the disbursement of installments (SMPs and ANFA), while it will also incorporate the 2022 Budget.

It is noted that the draft budget will be submitted on October 4 and the final is expected in Parliament in November, with the new measures announced by the Prime Minister. At the same time, it will include the detailed recording of the forecasts for the GDP and the incomes of 2022, where depending on the estimates it will be seen if a window is opened for new, possible reliefs.

At the same time, more and more analysts and investment firms seem to be convinced by the Greek development narrative, anticipating a dynamic recovery of the economy.

Foreign bank economists estimate that the Greek economy is entering an upward cycle of strong growth, at a time when the Greek Recovery Plan is expected to mobilize investment resources of 59 billion euros over the next six years and a total of 100 billion euros with the NSRF. the investment gap created during the ten year long debt crisis.

In fact, economists see Greece returning to the investment stage after the recent upgrades by the rating agencies. The upgrade of Greece, combined with the positive outlook, by DBRS is expected to fuel expectations for a return to investment rating next year, Commerzbank analyst Rainer Gooderman told Reuters. The European Central Bank (ECB) exceptionally included Greek bonds in the extraordinary program last year, and when the inclusion in the regular program expires, it requires at least an investment rating. This can be done, the Commerzbank analyst added, at the earliest next autumn, if Greece secures a two-tier upgrade from the rating agencies.

The provisional data for the Greek economy are particularly encouraging since in the first half of 2021 investments reached 10 billion euros, compared to 8.5 billion euros in the first half of 2019, while exports in the same period reached 16.4 billion, compared to 13.7 billion euros in the first half of 2019. The recent revision of GDP from 3.6% to 5.9% was based on the assumption that tourism will reach 55% of 2021 revenue before the pandemic. In July, tourism revenues, according to data from the Bank of Greece, amounted to 61.4% in 2019, which amounted to 2.27 billion euros from 3.7 billion euros in July 2019. Arrivals Travelers and related revenues showed a significant increase (by 240.2% and 235.6% respectively) compared to the same month of 2020.