The trend of private consumption, the cessation of the pandemic, the drop in unemployment, but also the reforms are the main components that, to a large extent, will determine the picture of the economic course of the country in 2022. It is obvious that, from the speed of investment However, the strengthening of the economy in an environmentally volatile environment will depend on the ever-increasing energy costs.
In essence, at first glance, the forecasts of the Preliminary Draft for the change of GDP and its components for the years 2021 and 2022 are positively revised in relation to those of the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework 2022-2025. For 2021 the revision of the forecast for the growth rate of 6.1% is even higher than the recent estimate of 5.9%, while, for 2022, the estimates of GDP growth are rightly more conservative at 4.5%.
The additional budget space will allow, both the integration of the package of positive measures of 3.5 billion euros announced by the government at the TIF, and the possibility of a new package of benefits, which, however, must first agree with the institutions within October. in the context of the 12th post-memorandum evaluation.
The freezing of the solidarity contribution in the private sector in 2022 is reflected in the draft, while the extension of the measure to civil servants and retirees is not ruled out. The increase in the Minimum Guaranteed Income and the granting of social dividends to vulnerable groups are under consideration, mainly due to the wave of accuracy sweeping across Europe and to be discussed at ECOFIN by EU Finance Ministers.
The draft of the FinMin carefully approaches the deficit in the state budget balance, which increased in the eight months and the primary result that formed a deficit of 6.38 billion euros, an increase of 897 million euros. At the same time, the amount of net income amounted to 34.69 billion euros and 2.45 billion euros higher than the estimate in the Medium Term Fiscal Strategy Program, because they include, on the one hand the advance from the Recovery Fund amounting to 2.31 billion euros and, on the other hand the revenues from ANFAs worth 644 million euros.
The draft budget moves with optimism, predicts significant growth, calculates inflation, monitors energy costs, expects investment vigilance, does not avoid the problem of deficits and seeks all the margins for tax and contribution cuts in 2022.
Vassilis Korkidis is President of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry
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