Hellenic Fiscal Council – The target for 4.5% growth in 2022 is achievable

Today, October 4, 2021, the Hellenic Fiscal Council under the chairmanship of Mr. Panagiotis Korliras, in accordance with Law 4270/2014 (article 58, par. 2, as amended by Law 4472/2017, no. 66, par. .2) is evaluating the macroeconomic forecasts adopted in the preliminary draft of the annual State Budget and ascertains the compliance with the limits provided in the “Fiscal Pact” (article 3 of Law 4063/2012).

Evaluation of macroeconomic provisions of the Preliminary Draft

As pointed out in the detailed assessment, there are two elements that play a key role in the macroeconomic forecasts of the State Budget for the year 2022.

(a) The forecast that the immediate negative economic effects of the pandemic crisis will continue to decline during 2022. Consequently, the gradual restart of the economy leads to a strong positive change in GDP in the current year (2021), which will also continue next year (2022).

(b) The estimate that the total investment cost of the economy will rise to high levels as a result, on the one hand of the dynamics of the 2021 recovery, on the other hand of the resources that will flow into the Greek economy from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF).

Based on the above, the most important sources of uncertainty regarding the forecasts for both the year 2021 and the year 2022, in addition to the geopolitical factors, are related to:
• confirmation of positive assessments regarding the evolution of the pandemic,
• developments in the field of energy prices and other productive inputs,
• the smooth and rapid activation of investment support schemes funded by the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF),
• possible revisions of data by ELSTAT regarding the GDP growth rate during the current year.

The President of the Hellenic Fiscal Council, Mr. Panagiotis Korliras, stated in this regard: “In 2022, the main source of uncertainty for the Greek economy remains the evolution of the pandemic. However, with the data so far, the situation seems to be manageable and allows us an optimistic view of the Greek economy. Therefore, taking into account the examination of the components of GDP included in this detailed assessment, as the Hellenic Fiscal Council we consider that the target for a rate of change in real GDP of 4.5% in 2022, as reflected in the macroeconomic forecasts of the Preliminary Draft Budget 2022 is achievable and leads us to adopt these forecasts “.