Citigroup – Insists on the forecast for growth of 8.8% in Greece in 2021

With the country’s tourism industry moving at better levels than expected and close to those of 2019, in its new monthly report on the global economy, Citigroup estimates that growth in Greece in 2021 will be in the region of 9% (8, 8% according to the official report) with the GDP growth of 2022 being estimated in its area of ​​4.5% (4.6% according to the official report).

Domestic demand is expected to increase by 4.2% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, while private consumption by 1.2% and 1.9% respectively. Investment is also expected to increase by 12.5% ​​this year and by 9.7% in 2022, with exports increasing by 12% and 10.9% respectively. In 2021, public debt is estimated to fall to 196% of GDP, to be found at 190.8% of GDP in 2022.

The Greek economy is entering a multi-year upward cycle of strong growth, at a time when the Greek Recovery Plan commits the largest amount of resources as a percentage of GDP in the Eurozone that reaches 16% of GDP for the next 6 years (of which almost 10% grants).

The grants are intended to finance public investment projects, while the loans will be used to co-finance private investment based on market conditions, thus boosting gross public debt but possibly not net debt. The revenues of the Development Fund will strengthen the investments after a negative 10 years, improving together with the reforms the overall business environment.

The Greek recovery plan has a good chance of succeeding in its main goals. GDP growth will be significant – the Bank of Greece estimated at around 7% by 2026, which is almost 1.5% higher annually. Given the prolonged divestment and the scope of reforms, there is great scope and investment opportunities in the country.