IOBE forecasts 8 to 8.5% GDP growth for 2021, but modest 4% for 2022

The Athens-based Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) on Wednesday released the most ambitious forecast for Greek economic growth so far, saying annual GDP this year will grow by 8 to 8.5 percent.

The Greek government has listed a forecast of 6.1 percent in GDP growth in 2022, in a recently tabled draft budget for the coming year.

Nevertheless, the research group is more guarded in its forecast for 2022, predicting economic growth at 4 percent.

At the same time, the quarterly IOBE report includes a gloomier scenario, warning that if the public health crisis worsens or if obstacles for the economy’s normal financing arise, then growth will be limited to a lackluster post-pandemic figure of 2.5 percent.

According to IOBE, continued high growth rates exceeding 3 percent per annum over a decade can be achieved only with an increase in productivity and the further attraction of productive factors, a development that necessitates substantive reforms in markets and the public sector – a catchphrase associated with the Greek economy for the past few decades.