EBRD – Forecast for growth of the Greek economy by 7% this year

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts 7% growth of the Greek economy this year with its new report on the economies it finances.

For 2022, the EBRD predicts that Greek GDP will increase by 3.9% as the recovery accelerates and significant infrastructure projects are promoted. However, he notes, significant downside risks remain, mainly related to the course of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on tourism and other services.

The Greek economy, the report notes, is recovering strongly after its large contraction by 9% in 2020. GDP in the first quarter of 2021 grew by 4.5% on a quarterly basis and further by 3.4% in the second quarter. The tourism sector had a better-than-expected performance this year, although it is still well below the 2019 record levels.

On fiscal policy, the EBRD says it remains focused on tackling the crisis, with the deficit likely to exceed 7% of GDP for the second consecutive year.

The implementation of the EU Recovery Fund and the NSRF is expected to make a significant contribution to growth, the house emphasizes.

The deputy director of the bank, Peter Sanfey, said: “The rapid growth of the economy so far in 2021 is a very positive sign and it is encouraging to see the strong focus on the green and digital agenda in the Greek recovery plan, which predisposes positively. for a future sustainable development “.

5.5% growth of EBRD countries

The EBRD also revised upwards its forecast for all countries it finances to 5.5% from 4.2% in June, after a strong performance in the first half of this year, but warned of serious risks in the future.

“High commodity and energy prices, tight labor markets, supply chain disruption and currency devaluations in some EBRD economies had begun to push inflation up even before the recent outbreak of the coronavirus. On average, inflation in the EBRD regions in September 2021 exceeded the levels of 2019 by 3 percentage points. “In response, a number of central banks in the EBRD regions raised their key interest rates,” the bank said.