Turkey wants everything on the table – Neutral onlookers and Athens’ answer

The Greek government seems to be preparing for answers to Turkey on the ground, which is essentially warning of a hot summer ahead and is examining any possible scenario in which the aggression of the neighboring country can be expressed.

Internal destabilization

In fact, in addition to the two main scenarios that the armed forces are examining, earlier there was an alarming statement from sources of the Ministry of Defense that spoke about a summer in which “we may have hybrid threats on the islands and borders in Evros with the aim of internal destabilization, wherever they come from.”

Essentially, these military circles speak of either a scenario like the thrusting of refugee and migration flows through the Greek-Turkish border as in March 2020 in Evros, or for example to light fires inside the country where the perpetrators have geopolitical motivation.

It is worth noting that the aim of these actions will be to destabilize the country.

Drilling and demilitarization

Beyond that, the two additional scenarios under consideration start from scenes similar to what we experienced with Oruc Reis in the summer of 2020 and go as far as a real hot incident.

The first scenario is the possibility that Turkey will attempt drilling in areas that have already been explored in the summer of 2020 in the south of Kastellorizo ​​or to proceed with explorations near Crete, in order to recall its claims under the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.

Athens has been preparing for this scenario for months, as the Turkish navy sees the sea area, which starts at six nautical miles and further east of Crete, as Ankara’s area of ​​responsibility.

The second – and worse – scenario, according to the same source, examines the attitude that Athens will follow in case of disturbance in the movement of units of the Armed Forces in the islands of the Eastern Aegean and, mainly, in the Dodecanese .

Unpredictable consequences

Already in the routine of Armed Forces officers is over-radio harassment of flying vehicles transporting troops to the islands, but no attempt has been made to stop them or block ships from approaching ports. It is easily understood that in such a scenario the intensity may very easily peak abruptly, with unpredictable consequences.

In fact, this becomes clear based on the examined scenarios and what Ankara intends with the rhetoric about the demilitarization of the Aegean islands and the questioning of the Greek sovereignty in these islands.

Demonstration of power with landings of soldiers

It is worth noting that Turkey is demonstrating its power by releasing a new video from the amphibious exercise “EFES” that is underway on the coasts of Asia Minor, with countries such as Azerbaijan and Albania, whose Minister of Defense is expected in Athens.

“Azerbaijan is not preparing for landings in Turkmenistan, it is obvious that it is training at an allied level with Turkey against Greece. TAP passes through Greece. “Let’s move on to practice so that we do not have another Istanbul”, underlined the internation relations professor Giorgos Filis.

Deterrent capability

Of course, the government at this stage is trying to internationalize the problem that arises from Turkey’s behavior and so far wants to avoid rhetorical outbursts commensurate with the delusions of the Turkish leadership.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis, attending the extraordinary EU Summit, stressed that “Greece faces the challenges with confidence and determination. We are a country that has international law on its side, we have strong allies and we have invested in our deterrent so that we do not allow anyone to question our sovereignty and our sovereign rights.”

Come to an understanding

However, what should be noted is that so far no clear and resounding condemnation has been expressed by several allies and partners of Greece for the latest provocations of Turkey with the most characteristic and recent attitude of Berlin where the message was “find them”.

The German Deputy Foreign Minister limited herself to stating that “we are closely monitoring developments and calling for dialogue, especially within NATO and between Alliance partners”, following the German Government’s statement that NATO is particularly important at the moment “and in this context addressed an appeal” to the Turkish President, but also to the Greek Prime Minister, to come to an understanding.”

Do not give in to blackmail

The message sent by Nikos Dendias to the West over the weekend also pointed out that Turkish revisionism is not limited to Greece and therefore stressed that Greece “expects its partners and allies not to give in to blackmail, under whatever “cloak” they vest it in”. Today, Mr. Dendias talked with the American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, where the Greek-Turkish ones were also presented.

Siege by the USA

For the time being, it is clear that Turkey does not welcome the tightening of Greece’s relations with the United States and does not miss the opportunity to boldly declare this, talking about a siege of Turkey by the United States and Greece.

Military analyst Joskun Basbug, speaking to CNN TURK, characteristically said that “the US says that they are creating a NATO structure here or maybe they are trying to besiege Turkey. The maps show it all,” he added.

“Rhodes, Lesvos, Chios, Samos are the areas where Greece militarizes the most. While the conditions say that Greece here can not even do fortification works. And naturally it can have no army there. They are clearly deploying forces and relying on NATO as the United States urges.”

Even more characteristic are the statements of the representative of Erdogan’s ruling party, Omer Celik, who stressed that the differences between Greece and Turkey do not concern third countries and should not be put on the table, referring to Mitsotakis’s speech in the US Congress.