UBS on Thursday released various economic forecasts for national economies and the global situation, the “UBS World at a Glance” report, pegging Greek GDP growth in 2022 at 4 percent.
The international investment bank cited a “lower statistical carry-over, soft high frequency data in Q1 so far and a much faster rise in inflation in 2022 – led by energy and food prices”.
Nevertheless, UBS said Greece had a very strong start to the tourism season, pointing to revenues increasing by 340 percent, y/y, in the first quarter.
The report adds: “Household spending should benefit from the government support measures related to energy prices (2.2 percent of GDP), sustained job gains (employment up 14 percent y/y) and the second minimum wage hike (combined 9.7 percent since January). In addition, Greece received EUR 3.6bn from the RRF on 8 April (after EUR 4bn in August 2021). The government expects a -2 percent of GDP primary budget deficit in 2022 and the primary budget deficit in January-April 2022 reached only EUR -0.8bn (-0.4 percent of GDP), or EUR 1.7bn better than planned (revenues better, spending lower).”
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