Greek-Turkish relations: Athens is changing its foreign policy doctrine

Seasons change and with them and the, doctrine, alliances and supporters. “Belonging to the West” which once referred directly to the alliance with the USA and NATO, today refers more to belonging to Europe. And after the tectonic geopolitical changes caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, laying the foundations for a new Cold War, it seems to be becoming not just the only commonly “accepted” option that places Greece on the “right side of History”, but also a new diplomatic “card” that Greece can lay on the table of its allies and partners. That of condemning the politics of revisionism.

The war in Ukraine put issues under contention that seemed have been resolved for the countries of the West – with the exception of Cyprus – as early as World War II, such as respect for national integrity and national sovereignty, based on the fundamental rules of international law. And if many countries in the West  had lost interest in the Cypriot issue and the Greek-Turkish problems and looked upon them as “indifferent” problems, now they are put on a different footing. As the developments forced the western powers to wake up.

Even if Turkey is characterized as a “difficult but necessary ally”, analysts that at this point in time do not believe it has the leeway that would allow it to implement extreme threats against Greece. As the momentum may have failed to compel Turkey to drop its casus belli threat, it does not allow cracks in NATO. Fissures like the one Ankara tried to bring about in 2020, during the “Oruc Reis” crisis.

The momentum also allows no leeway for questioning territorial integrity, in a logic that Ankara pursues through its claims about the demilitarization of the Aegean islands. And Turkish diplomacy seems to have realized this, and that is why it is sticking to rhetorical provocations.

The allies

At the same time, Athens’ alliance with Washington seems stronger than ever. An alliance that, despite any opposition criticisms, has the consent of both major parties. Let’s not forget that the new defense agreement (MDCA) was started during the SYRIZA government and was signed during the ND government. The U.S. bases on Greek soil – facilities in modern terminology – in Alexandroupolis and Souda are characterized as particularly important. A fact that has provoked the reactions of Turkey.

Greece’s alliances with the Arab countries and Israel also have their own weight. Tripartite cooperation schemes and the role of Athens as a bridge that can bring East and West together in a period of energy crisis when the West is anxiously looking for alternatives are considered to be able to upgrade the role of the country as well. In this context, however, an important role can be played by Turkey, which claims its own leading role in charting new energy paths.

Momentum, however, refers to the given moment in history. And as developments progress it may change. Either for the better, or weakening, until it is lost. It is at these times that a high strategy is required of political leadership  . And this strategy should continue even if governments change.