DW: Athens is a winner on the international diplomacy front

International indices usually follow a set model. This is what history teaches, this is what political science studies prove. The final stage of escalation is war. An important preliminary stage is always the preparation of the population for eventual conflict. In this phase, the control of public opinion plays a decisive role. Rulers achieve this by aligning the media. We see how this method works in Russia, where public dissent about Putin’s war is a criminal offence. The crackdown on freedom of expression began long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The current crisis between Greece and Turkey is far from the situation in Ukraine. However, it is notable that the Turkish president’s rhetoric has become increasingly aggressive, with Erdogan now openly threatening a military attack.

In the gradual escalation scenario, we are in the preliminary stages of a possible war. The worrying thing is that the poisonous rhetoric of the political leadership is being accepted by large sections of the population – and it is having a negative impact.

The voices calling for moderation and peace are hardly heard. In Turkey, the election campaign is in full swing: the opposition is partly trying to win votes with even more aggressive rhetoric.

There are no publications that support Turkish positions

Anyone reading the newspapers in Greece and Turkey these days will find very different narratives: In the Turkish-led media, Greece is the aggressor.

In Greece, it is the exact opposite: for most Greeks, Erdogan – and only him – fuels the tension. The Greek-Turkish dispute has long been the subject of international politics. Both sides are internationalizing bilateral issues – in the EU, in NATO and in their relations with the US. On the international diplomacy front, Athens has so far emerged victorious.

The EU, and more recently the US, have called Erdogan to order. Even in the comments of the major international newspapers, one searches in vain for articles supporting the Turkish positions. This marginalization of Ankara in the Western media is a symptom of a gradual distancing of Turkey from the West. We are witnessing a geostrategic reorientation of Turkey, which has long considered itself an emerging regional power.

In this version, with which a large majority of the population agrees, Turkey’s national interests prevail over all other parameters. In this situation, the possibilities of the EU and especially NATO to convince Turkey to moderate its policy are diminishing. Peace in the Aegean – and this is the worst case scenario – could be the first casualty of Turkey’s break with the West. With his rhetoric, President Erdogan is already preparing the population for this eventuality.

Dr. Ronald Meinardus is a political analyst, commentator and principal researcher at ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he was director of the Greek editorial office of Deutsche Welle.