Political risk remains high in Greece, Moody’s assessed in a report on 29 September, among other things, examining how the elections affect the country’s credit profile. As it estimates, the change in the electoral law, with the abolition of the bonus of 50 seats, makes it unlikely that a party will win an absolute majority or enough seats to form a stable governing coalition.
Therefore, a second round of elections in which some seat bonus will be reinstated and a period of a few weeks or more for the formation of a government is the most likely scenario for this house.
Reforms
The international ratings agency, although it predicts that more time will be required for the formation of a government, considers that the risk of a reversal of the reforms or a substantial change in the course of fiscal and economic policy is low, although creditors require Greece to continue fiscal prudent fiscal policies further promoting the necessary institutional and structural reforms.
Read also: Greek economy can prevail without a new exit to markets
However, according to the common consensus of analysts’ estimates, the deep recession in which the eurozone is foreseen to find itself in 2023, as well as the electoral cycle, are expected not only to slow down the growth rate of Greece’s GDP, but also to delay the acquisition of “investment grade” by the rating agencies possibly, conditionally, at the end of next year or even later, as the question is whether the country will achieve the primary surplus it has committed to for next year.
The election scenarios
Today the markets expect elections next May for at least two rounds. Thus, the upgrade to “investment grade” of Greece could come, according to pundit estimates, at the earliest a few months after the assumption of the new government and after the first signs that the country has not forsaken its commitments.
It should be noted that Moody’s assesses Greece with “Ba3” and stable outlook (three steps below investment grade), maintaining the worst rating from the other houses, as Fitch with “BB” and positive outlook is two steps below investment grade, while S&P with ‘BB+’ and DBRS with ‘BB high’, with a stable outlook, are one breath (just one grade) away from the Investment Grade IG threshold.
As the investment category includes bonds with ratings of BBB-/Baa3 or better, in order for Greece to obtain it, one of these four agencies, which are accepted by the Eurosystem as external credit rating agencies, will have to upgrade the Greek State to investment grade.
στο Google News και μάθετε πρώτοι όλες τις ειδήσειςLatest News
Vardis Vardinogiannis: ‘On a Ship’s Bridge You Always Look Forward’
Ten milestones in the half century since the creation of Motor Oil Group, as described by Vardis Vardinogiannis, who passed away on Tuesday at the age of 91
DBRS Says Greek Banks ‘Shielded’ from ECB Rate Cuts
The agency explains that fund disbursements through the banking sector will help offset pressures anticipated on interest margins beginning in 2025, due to expected rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Meta Cuts Facebook and Instagram Subscription Fees by 40%
The social media giant also revealed that it will continue to offer free access to Facebook and Instagram for EU users, provided they agree to see ads based on a limited set of user data.
Skyrocketing Use of Debit, Credit Cards
The total value of the transactions conducted with debit and credit cards in the country in the first half of 2024 rose 2% on the corresponding period of 2023
JP Morgan Revised Greece Outlook to ‘Overweight’
The investment bank notes that Greece is showing the strongest GDP growth in the Eurozone. Additionally, efforts to clear up bank balance sheets are anticipated to yield increased capital returns.
Vardis I. Vardinogiannis, Greek Tycoon and Shipping Magnate, Dies at 91
In 1990, Vardinogiannis was targeted in an attack which involved three rockets fired at his vehicle by the terrorist organization 17 November.
Kudos for Greek Sheep’s Milk Cheeses
Graviera is the Greek version of the Swiss gruyère, and is generally considered the second most popular cheese made in the country after feta
EIB Survey: Greeks Rank Climate Change as Top Concern After Cost of Living
Specifically, 98% of the Greeks surveyed stated that the country must to adapt to climate change, with 60% saying that priority should be given to these adjustment measures
Trump Tells Putin not to Escalate Ukraine War during Phone Convo
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden, is preparing to lobby Trump against abandoning U.S. support for Kyiv
Former Thessaloniki Mayor Yiannis Boutaris Dies at 82
Boutaris entered politics in 2010, serving as the 60th mayor of Thessaloniki for two consecutive terms until 2019, becoming a transformative figure with his progressive policies.
