Greek supermarkets: Market grows by 4.6% in the first nine months of 2022 due to inflation

Increased sales in value by 4.6% were recorded by the organized food retail market (food stores over 100 m2, on mainland Greece & Crete, excluding the islands) in the nine months of 2022 (YTD data up to 02 October 2022), in comparison to the corresponding period last year. As the survey showed, there were large price increases in bread, pasta, oils and paper products.

According to NielsenIQ, this trend is driven by food, both fresh (+6.6%) and standardized (+5.5%), as the bazaar category shows zero growth, while large FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) categories of household use, as well as personal care show significantly more moderate sales growth in value, at +1.0% and +0.6% respectively.

Inflationary pressures

The unit sales of the above categories show am overall negative trend, which suggests that the growth of the market is inflationary and therefore not due to increased demand/consumption, at least at the nine-month level.

Regarding the different types of stores, the largest growth is shown by the smallest-sized stores (Superettes, 100-400 sq.m.), at +5.7%, which is due, among other things, to the restructuring of the retail trade with the continuous acquisitions of smaller chains or individual stores by the industry’s strongest players, thereby boosting the dynamics of smaller venues.

At the level of geographical regions, tourism seems to have significantly stimulated the purchasing dynamics of the region, at least for the time period under review, with the result that the regions of Crete, as well as the Peloponnese, show the most positive growth trends (+7.4% and + 6.8% respectively).

Price increases

In terms of prices, the spike in inflation has also heavily impacted the performance of some of the largest FMCG categories. Indicatively, and in relation to the corresponding period last year, some of the main categories in the food industry, such as bread and pasta, owe their turnover increase mainly to the increase in their average selling price, which reached 13.0% and 10.1% respectively, while in the case of seed oils the average price of the category increased by 38.9%. The change in the average price in the paper product sector and in all the main categories that make it up was also significant, with the average price of kitchen paper increasing by +15.6%, while for toilet paper this increase amounted to +12 .7%.

Consumer fears

At the same time, consumers are still concerned about prices, feeling more than ever that they are on the rise, with a clear increase in the percentage of those reporting this (from 72% in 2020 to 99% in 2022), based on latest data from NielsenIQ’s Shopper Trends survey. Indicative of the above is the fact that the course of the share of private label products continues its upward course, having reached 14.4% (excluding the discount channel), an upward trend that started from mid-2021 onwards. At the same time, the promotional activities for branded products have been further strengthened, reaching 66.5%, in an effort to contain prices both by suppliers and by the different retail chains, in the context of the very competitive environment they operate in.