The Greek economy will face consecutive “stress tests” over the first half of 2023 by international credit rating firms, as the previously crisis-battered country strives for a coveted investment grade rating.
The period, of course, will coincide with a campaign season in the country, as a general election will take place. Although the Mitsotakis government would relish an investment grade rating before the election, most analysts believe an upgrade will come – if it comes – in the summer, after any election. One reason is that two separate trips to the ballot box are possible, given that the current electoral system leans heavily towards the simple representational, making the prospect of electing a majority government more difficult. Any repeat election – within weeks – will be conducted with a system that favors the first-past-the-poll party.
The first test comes on Jan. 27, when Fitch will issue its latest credit rating for the country. S&P will follow on April 21.
Greek debt is two notches down from investment grade on Fitch’s ratings scoreboard, and one down on S&P’s and DBRS’s; three notches from the coveted rating on Moody’s scale.
Two of the ratings agencies recognized by the ECB are S&P, which raised Greece to BB+ last April, and Canada-based DBRS, which raised Greece to ΒΒ (high) in September.
The situation, nevertheless, is dramatically different when compared to the advent of the crisis in 2009, when ratings agencies downgraded Greek titles into the funk category, essentially precluding the country from sovereign borrowing.
Despite an exit from the memorandum years, Greek titles have still not return to the high marks of pre-2009. The pandemic also delayed the attainment of an investment grade ratings, although since 2019 Greece has been upgraded 11 times.
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