
Despite the mounting banking turmoil and calls for pausing interest rate hikes, both the European Central Bank (on 16 March) and the Federal Reserve (on 22 March) raised their interest rates. This was the right decision. I expect the Bank of England to follow suit.
Some observers emphasised that a pause in interest rate hikes could have been interpreted as central banks worrying about the health of the banking system, which might have undermined the trust in banks further.
There would have been an even more crucial medium-term concern with a pause: yielding to mild signs of banking troubles to give up the fight against inflation, when it is 3-4-times larger than the 2% target and labour markets are strong, would have undermined the trust in the central bank’s determination to keep inflation under control. That could have resulted in an increase in inflation expectations and increased uncertainty about the duration of the current inflation surge, potentially resulting in a more lasting and painful adjustment.
Current banking troubles are concentrated on isolated banks, such as the Silicon Valley Bank in the US, which had a risky business model and inadequate risk management processes, and Credit Suisse, which was subject to money laundering, corruption and spying scandals, made a big loss in 2022, and was expected to make losses in 2023 too. When deposits were evaporating from Credit Suisse, other banks, such as UBS and Deutsche Bank, reported unusually high deposit inflows, suggesting that the trust in a few specific institutions was undermined, but not in the banking system as a whole. European banks do not suffer from the problems of the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, while tightened banking regulation and bank supervision since the 2008 global financial crisis made banks more resilient. The same applies to large US banks.
Inflation remains stubbornly high, while unemployment remains close to historical lows. While the ECB has revised its headline inflation forecast for 2023 down from 6.3% in its December forecast to 5.3% in its March forecast –most likely due to the unexpected fall in energy prices over the past three months–, it revised its core inflation forecast (which excludes volatile energy and food prices) up from 4.2% to 4.6%. The employment growth forecast for 2023 was revised upward (from 0.4% to 0.8%), while the unemployment rate forecast was revised downward (from 6.9% to 6.6%).
The ECB’s main deposit interest rate had just reached 3% when the latest February headline inflation figure was 8.5% and core inflation was 5.6%. In most past monetary tightening episodes, the central bank’s interest rate was raised to above inflation. This time, it is still much lower than that.
Thus, the time of isolated banking problems, high inflation, low unemployment, and so-far feeble interest rate hikes is not the time to pause monetary tightening.
Zsolt Darvas
Senior fellow, Bruegel


Latest News

IMF: US Tariffs Shake Global Economy, Outlook Downbeat
IMF slashes global growth forecast to 2.8% as U.S. tariffs create uncertainty and ‘negative supply shock

First Step Towards New Audiovisual Industry Hub in Drama
The project is set to contribute to the further development of Greece’s film industry and establish Drama as an audiovisual hub in the region

Airbnb Greece – Initial CoS Ruling Deems Tax Circular Unlawful
The case reached the Council of State following annulment applications filed by the Panhellenic Federation of Property Owners (POMIDA)

Mitsotakis Unveils €1 Billion Plan for Housing, Pensioners, Public investments
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has announced a new set of economic support measures, worth 1 billion euros, aiming to provide financial relief to citizens.

Alter Ego Ventures Invests in Pioneering Gaming Company ‘Couch Heroes’
Alter Ego Ventures' participation in the share capital of Couch Heroes marks yet another investment by the Alter Ego Media Group in innovative companies with a focus on technology.

Corruption Still Plagues Greece’s Driving Tests
While traffic accidents continue to claim lives on Greek roads daily, irregularities and under-the-table dealings in the training and testing of new drivers remain disturbingly widespread

Pope Francis Died of Stroke and Heart Failure Vatican Confirms
As news of the official cause of death spread, tributes poured in from across the globe. The 1.4 billion-member Catholic Church is united in grief, remembering a pope who championed inclusion, justice, and compassion

Increase in Both Museum Visits, Revenues for 2024
As expected, the Acropolis was the top archeological site in the country, followed by Sounion, Mycenae, the ancient theater of Epidaurus, and Vergina in northern Greece

Where Greece’s Tourists Come From: A Look at 2025’s Top Visitor Markets
The United Kingdom continues to hold the top spot as the largest source of incoming tourism, with 5.6 million seats booked for Greece this summer — up 2.2% from last year. This accounts for 20% of all international air traffic to Greece

Pope Francis: A Pontiff Who Reshaped the Papacy and Sparked a Global Conversation
His first words from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica—“Brothers and sisters, good evening”—set the tone for a pontificate that would challenge norms, favor mercy over dogma, and bring the papacy closer to the people.