The cruise industry appears on track to surpass the 2019 level.
By 2024 it is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 16%, according to a report by Oxford Economics.
The global shutdown in March 2020 found cruising with a cruise ship orderbook near record levels(113). Even with pandemic-related delays, many of these ships will be completed and operational in 2023 and 2024.
Fleet Increase by 25% in the medium term
Some of these cruise ships have already been launched while some other orders have been cancelled, but overall the order book remains quite active, with 71 ships on order. Many of these ships are in advanced stages and will sail in the coming years, thus strengthening the cruise fleet.
The fleet increase will be partially offset by the retirement of cruise ships. Supply growth is expected to slow in 2025, but production capacity is expected to increase by around 25% in the medium term.
Bookings rise in the first quarter of 2023
The recent uptick in bookings has eased concerns as demand is on a strong recovery path. As the cruise industry has reopened, early 2023 has seen a record number of new bookings, which fills the industry with optimism regarding the fullness of scheduled itineraries.
The economic slowdown is ongoing, with many advanced economies in a mild recession in 2023, which risks holding back the recovery in demand. However, travel demand currently remains resilient as consumer savings continue to support cruise travel.
Imbalance in cruise ship sizes
The supply growth cycle means that the cruise sector not only faces the challenge of re-igniting cruise demand after the pandemic, but also needs to attract a significant number of new cruise ships to absorb new passengers.
While approximately 2,500 ports and destinations host cruise operations, the distribution of port visits is largely shaped on ship size. Cruise ships with a capacity of more than 4,500 passengers account for 16% of total cruise capacity, but only visit 140 ports worldwide
49% of large cruise ship activity this year is expected to take place in just five ports (Barcelona, Miami, Marseille, Rome/Civitavecchia and Southampton).
The new ships in the order book will further change the mix of ships and routes operated. While the ships decommissioned during the pandemic were mostly mid-sized, the cruise ships built since the start of the pandemic represent the two extremes of the market, large cruise ships or smaller luxury cruise ships. This new mix will influence route and port choices in the coming years.
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