The “psychological threshold” in upcoming Greek elections

This is perhaps the most ambiguous electoral contest of the last decade: the facts of the election battle of May 21 have already changed many times, with the tragedy in Tempi largely shaping a new agenda, while the attitude of PASOK and the “neither Tsipras nor Mitsotakis” slogan makes the elections a political game for three.

The only thing that has not changed are the boundaries within which the three largest parties aspire to move.

Mainly the turning point, the percentage – “psychological threshold” that facilitates their narratives and allows them to say that they are close to the goal they have set, whether the first ballot box brings forth a government or a repeat election is needed.

New Democracy

For governing New Democracy party, the most important thing is that the percentage of the first Sunday shows that there is a serious possibility that the party will gain self-reliance in the second round, with the system of enhanced proportionality – after all, Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself has recently been constantly emphasizing that the result on May 21 it will be seen who will be the next prime minister, but also what kind of government will emerge.

The need becomes more urgent, given the “red line” of PASOK – KINAL for the person of the prime minister – especially since for many new Democracy cadres PASOK is the only parliamentary party that could potentially become a government coalition partner.

Estimates so far put the “psychological” limit for New Democracy at 34%, so that it can mindlessly hand over the mandate betting on the upcoming self-reliance.

SYRIZA

Based on the numbers quoted by pollsters so far, the same limit for SYRIZA is 30%. Given that pollsters have consistently found SYRIZA lower than it is actually measured at the ballot box and considering its percentage in 2019, the number “3” in front of the double digit is particularly important. It keeps a (relatively) short distance from the first party and maintains a safe distance from the third party.

Allowing on the one hand dreams of overturning the image in the second ballot and on the other hand keeping the data “clean” in the progressive space, with Alexis Tsipras requesting an order for the formation of a progressive government of cooperation from the first Sunday.

At the same time, 30% gives SYRIZA a percentage close to the percentage it received in 2019, a fact that even in the event of defeat keeps SYRIZA within the framework of bipartisanship and Alexis Tsipras himself in a state of internal party acquiesence.

PASOK – KINAL

For PASOK – KINAL, the strong double-digit percentage is, according to Nikos Androulakis, of utmost importance. With this, the party will enter coalition discussions on the basis of programmatic convergences and persons of “common acceptance”, without taking the popular will as an order to stay in the opposition.

The interpretation of the “strong double digit” obviously depends on the percentages of New Democracy and SYRIZA, but the “psychological” limit of 12% not only allows PASOK to sit at the cooperation table without being considered a “supplement” of the first party , but at the same time it almost ensures that, even if these discussions are ultimately not successful, the double digits will remain in the second ballot as well. And this regardless of the polarization that will exist between the two first parties.