Greek real estate: “Explosion” in commercial venues – Higher yields of malls

More than 220,000 square meters of new retail space will be added to the domestic market over the next few years, with the post-pandemic retail recovery and high returns in the commercial property sector re-igniting investor interest.

The majority of new developments are launched within the area of Ellinikon (Vouliagmenis Mall 130,000 sq.m. Commercial Hub 30,000 sq.m., Riviera Galleria 19,000 sq.m.), however, developers are actively moving in other areas as well, such as the center of of Athens (Mignon 6,500 sq.m.), Piraeus (Piraeus Tower 7,000 sq.m.), Patras (new commercial park developed by Ten Brinke and Trade Estates 7,900 sq.m.) and Heraklion, Crete (new commercial park developed by Ten Brinke and Trade Estates 21,000 sq.m.).

At the same time, the demand for renting commercial shops in the most commercial streets of Athens, Thessaloniki, Glyfada, Kifissia and Piraeus, is still high due to the lack of vacant shops, as characteristically reported by the research of Cerved Property Services (CPS ).

Higher yields in malls

The interesting thing is, however, that the yields in malls, where the big “players” such as Lamda Development dominate, are higher compared to those of the shops in the popular shopping streets.

In particular, yields in shopping centers range between 6.75% – 7.75% compared to 5.5% – 6.5% of high street stores.

According to a Savills analysis of the European commercial real estate market, in the third quarter of 2022, prime shopping center yields reached a new high of 5.52% on average across Europe.

This performance is 20 basis points above the previous quarter and 105 basis points above the last price peak in Q1 2018 (4.47%).

On the other hand, store yields in popular malls fell an average of 18 basis points in Q3 to 3.78%.

Savills analysts forecast a further weakening of returns over the next six months, particularly for high street stores.

Rising prices

Also worth mentioning is the fact that despite the reduction in the disposable income of Greeks due to the energy crisis and inflationary pressures, real estate prices in the retail market marked a significant increase in 2022.

In particular, according to data from real estate consulting companies, commercial real estate prices recorded an increase of 6.1% in 2022, when in 2021 they had shown an increase of 2.3%.

Of course, the priority in 2022 was the residential sector with a price increase of 13.6% compared to 2021, however, commercial properties surpassed offices, whose prices showed a 4.1% increase.

When it comes to retail rents, according to data in the latest quarterly survey by Cushman & Wakefield Propius, there is also an increase.

Specifically, renting a store in Ermou costs 275 euros per sq.m. per month, from 260 euros per sq.m. a year ago and very close to 280 euros/sq.m. in 2019, the  best year historically for tourism. On the contrary, rents in Kolonaki are reduced by 5% compared to 2021. In Glyfada they reach 140 euros/sq.m. per month, in Kifissia they amount to 110 euros/sq.m. per month, in Piraeus 80 euros/sq.m. per month.

Gap widens

At the same time, however, thousands of commercial properties are being sidelined as the gap between stores in popular markets and those in secondary markets widens.

It is characteristic that only 9% of the participants in the CPS survey answered that leasing interest for stores in secondary markets will increase, while the corresponding percentage for buying interest was even lower, at 5%.

The vast majority of people in the property market, according to the same survey, estimate that sales and rental prices in the main markets will remain stable during 2023 compared to 2022.

However, one in two managers of the real estate market believes that there will also be a further rise in prices in the main demand markets.