The recent elections in Greece led to a strong result and a new four-year term for the New Democracy party, whose investment-friendly program underpins its decision to upgrade Greece’s outlook to positive as early as 2.12.2022, with the assessment of BB+ to be one step away from investment grade ahead of the house’s new rating on 4 August, Scope Ratings said.
The German rating agency that aspires to become the European answer (it has submitted a relevant application to the ECB) to the top four agencies (DBRS, S&P, Moody’s, Fitch), which are currently also accepted by the Eurosystem as external rating agencies (ECAIs), expects that growth in Greece will range at 2.3% this year (vs. 1.2% predicted in December) and 1.6% in 2024, with public debt to GDP falling to 161.2% and 154% respectively even reaching 142.2% in 2028, which means that it will have fallen by 64.1 percentage points from the historical high of 206.3% of GDP in 2020.
Greece’s relations with Europe have been strengthened institutionally in recent years, including essentially better access to financing from the ECB. As long as Greece complies with the rules of Europe, Scope believes that the ECB will support the Greek markets if necessary and in the future from unfavorable situations. Moreover, the result of the elections will support this embankment for at least the next 4 years.
The assessment of Greece currently still reflects the following challenges:
1. The (still) high debt
2. The weak banking system (although bad loans have decreased).
3. Uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy after the relaxation of European supervision
4. The long-term political risk.
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