The de-escalation of TTF natural gas prices to the levels of 36 euros per MWh did not last long.
The market has found new reasons to trigger increases while Europe and Greece are gradually entering the winter season.
Natural gas contracts for the month of November last Friday, October 13, shot up to levels of 55 euros per MWh, rising to a three-month high.
The reasons
According to analysts, the 53% increase compared to the price of 36 euros per MWh at the beginning of the month is attributed on the one hand to the market’s concerns about a generalization of the conflict in the Middle East with potential effects on the crude oil market that may drag down the natural gas but also in the shutdown of the Balticconnector pipeline. It connects Finland to Estonia by transporting small amounts of natural gas and the shut-off came after the pipeline was found to be leaking. Suspicions of sabotage brought back memories of the Nord Stream sabotage, and concern over whether the energy infrastructure is secure has gripped everyone.
The Hamas attack on Israel and the leak in the Lower Baltic pipeline more or less coincided in time. The first event on Saturday the 7th of the month and the second took place on Tuesday the 10th of October.
Electricity prices
Despite the fact that natural gas storage facilities are full in Europe, the markets nevertheless react with uncertainty and insecurity to any small or large geopolitical event or to any even minor supply incident.
This nervousness was also reflected in the TTF.
Natural gas remains the dominant fuel for power generation. Therefore, any small or large increase in its price also drags with it electricity prices.
The estimates and factors of the Greek energy market want electricity prices on the Hellenic Energy Exchange and, by extension, on the bills of households and businesses to follow an upward trajectory.
After all, TTF natural gas contracts also point to a winter with tougher prices. For December they range above 57 euros per MWh and in January above 58.5 euros per MWh.
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