EU Commission autumn report: Greek econ growth at 2.4% this year; 2.2% in 2024, 2025

The EU Commission’s autumn economic forecast cites growth in Greece this year at 2.4 percent, easing slightly to 2.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, in line with most predictions for the east Mediterranean country by international and European organizations.

According to the Commission report, economic expansion in the country is buoyed by implementation of the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) and what it terms as a resilient labor market.

Headline inflation in Greece for 2023 is forecast to reach 4.3 percent, decreasing to 2.1 percent next year. The general government deficit is expected to shrink further “on the back of muted expenditure growth and higher revenues.”

The report adds that a lower deficit in tandem with a forecast for solid nominal GDP growth will aid in the decrease of a Greek high public debt-to-GDP ratio.

The report notes:

“The Greek economy posted solid growth in the first half of 2023, driven primarily by consumption and net exports. Private consumption benefited from pent-up demand, notably in services, while a significant drop in imports prompted a positive contribution of net exports that had been underperforming in recent quarters. Investment activity slowed significantly following a spike in the last quarter of 2022. The impact of the devastating Thessaly floods on overall growth is increasing domestic demand with the full recovery of tourism, real GDP growth for the remainder of the year is expected to be solid, averaging 2.4 percent for 2023 as a whole.

“…The fiscal outlook is subject to country-specific risks. Downside risks stem from pending legal cases, most notably the litigation cases against the Public Properties Company (ETAD). On the orts to increase tax compliance through digitalization may yield already in 2024 additional revenues compared to the current forecast,” the report’s segment on Greece concludes.

The entire report is here: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-11/ip258_en.pdf