Seismologists Cautiously Optimistic as Aegean Earthquake Activity Evolves

Seismologists in Greece are increasingly confident that the risk of a major earthquake exceeding magnitude 6 in the southern Aegean is diminishing, despite the persistent seismic activity in recent weeks. According to Efthymios Lekkas, head of Greece’s Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, current data suggests a gradual decline in intensity.

“We cannot determine in a single day what stage we are in until that day has passed. From the beginning, we said this would be a prolonged sequence—lasting about three to five weeks,” Lekkas explained.

Three Possible Scenarios

Lekkas outlined three potential outcomes for the ongoing seismic sequence between Santorini and Amorgos.

The most likely scenario, he said, is a gradual reduction in both the frequency and magnitude of tremors over time. “This is one possibility, which we are currently experiencing with the fluctuations we’ve observed,” he noted.

A second scenario involves a stronger earthquake—around magnitude 5.5 or 5.6—which could speed up the process, hastening the stabilization of the region. “A 5.6 could accelerate things, shortening the period of impact,” he said.

The third, less probable, scenario is the occurrence of a magnitude 6 earthquake. “Last week, the maximum estimated magnitude was 6.2, but this has now been revised downward,” he stated. While such an event could impact nearby islands and even generate a small tsunami, Lekkas reassured that “the first and second scenarios have an overwhelming probability exceeding 95%, and we are focusing on those.”

“I believe that the likelihood of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher has been ruled out,” he added, explaining that the accumulated energy in the region is gradually dissipating. “Today, we are a little more optimistic than we were yesterday.”

Signs of Stabilization

Other experts have echoed this cautious optimism. Professor of Geophysics and Seismology at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Kostas Papazachos, who spoke to television channel ERT noted that “in recent days, the situation is improving,” though he warned that “nature can still surprise us.” Nonetheless, he believes the region is heading toward stabilization.

Meanwhile, Professor of Earthquake-Resistant Structures Panagiotis Karydis emphasized the role of terrain in determining the potential impact of future quakes during an interview on MEGA Weekend. “If an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurs where it’s projected, I think the effects will be limited to certain areas, especially due to the terrain. The direction matters because, due to material inertia, structures react differently depending on where the earthquake comes from,” he explained.

Karydis also cautioned that repeated tremors could weaken buildings over time. “These earthquakes affect structures through the ground. In areas where the ground is soft and sandy, it absorbs vibrations, which helps in some ways. But if the ground is free to shift, we can see deformations and landslides,” he warned.

With seismic activity still fluctuating, experts continue to monitor the situation closely.

Source: tovima.com