Greek Tourism: Beyond Records, Toward Sustainable Growth

The latest issue of the “Business Trends” study series by the National Bank of Greece explores the evolving prospects for Greek tourism. The sector is urged not to rest on its laurels after achieving “easy records” but to leverage emerging opportunities for a more efficient and sustainable tourism model.

Tourism experienced robust growth in 2024, reaching an all-time high with 36 million arrivals and 21 billion euros in revenue (a 4% annual rise), alongside a 2-percentage-point reduction in seasonality.

Looking ahead, the global tourism market is expected to grow by 3%-5% in 2025, according to UNWTO projections. Early indicators, such as airline bookings, suggest that Greece is well-positioned to outperform this trend.

Despite uncertainties remaining high for the sector, with volatile conditions on the international stage, Greek tourism is urged to stay focused on its long-term strategic goals by aligning with global market trends.

Over the next two decades, the global tourism industry is set to maintain its strong momentum, reaching 2.4 billion tourists by 2040. A key shift is underway, with demand increasingly driven by non-European travelers, leading to structural transformations in the global tourism landscape.

For Europe to maintain its share in both short- and long-haul travel by 2040, it must attract 30% more European tourists and double its intake of non-European visitors compared to current levels.

Greece has ample room to expand its currently modest share of the growing non-European tourism market. Over the past five years, Greece has captured just 2.5% of non-European visitors to Europe, compared to a 5% share among European tourists.

If Greece aims for a 5% share in both markets, combined with overall international tourism growth, the country could see an additional 19 million tourists by 2040.

However, the industry must resist the temptation of simply chasing new arrival records, gradually shifting away from its traditional “sun and sea” model toward a more balanced seasonal distribution.

This would mean reducing the peak summer months (July-August) from 37% of annual arrivals to 27%, a level more representative of the region’s climate.

Under these conditions, Greece could absorb its growing tourist demand without exacerbating overcrowding during peak months like August. Meanwhile, the average spending per overnight stay has the potential to rise by 15% in real terms, driving total tourism revenue up to 34 billion euros by 2040 —an increase of 14 billion euros from 2024.